The UK government is set to introduce stricter visa rules for nationals from countries deemed high-risk for overstaying or making asylum claims. The move aims to prevent abuse of work and study visas, which are viewed as potential entry points into the asylum system. According to government sources, visa holders from Pakistan, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka have been flagged as the most likely to follow this trajectory.

The proposed measure is part of a broader immigration crackdown, which aims to restrict individuals from the affected countries from obtaining work and study visas. The UK government will reject visas from individuals who "fit the profile of someone who will go on to claim asylum and are from countries with high rates of asylum claims in the UK." This development is seen as a response to the growing number of asylum claims in the UK, with over 108,000 people seeking asylum last year, the highest since records began in 1979.

Pakistani nationals made up the largest group, with 10,542 claims, followed by Sri Lankan and Nigerian nationals with 2,862 and 2,841 claims, respectively. Furthermore, 40,000 people who entered the UK on valid visas later claimed asylum – 37% of all applications and more than those arriving by small boats. This has raised concerns for Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, who has highlighted the growing strain on the Home Office's accommodation system.

The UK Home Office is also strengthening its intelligence capabilities to help caseworkers identify patterns among individuals who are most likely to exploit work and study visas as a route to claim asylum. This move is seen as a response to the growing number of individuals using work and study visas as a means to gain entry into the UK's asylum system. When an asylum request is rejected, the affected individuals can prolong their stay – sometimes indefinitely – by making repeated appeals to frustrate their deportation.

The development has significant implications for international students, particularly from Nigeria, where there has been a dramatic surge in the number of Nigerian nationals migrating to the UK through its educational system. Between 2019 and 2022, the number of Nigerian dependents accompanying students in the UK skyrocketed from approximately 1,500 to 52,000, a trend attributed to a policy lapse that went largely unchecked during the post-pandemic period.

The UK government's decision to revise its immigration policies, particularly those concerning international students and their families, has already led to a decline in new student applications from Nigeria. The financial instability and currency depreciation in Nigeria have contributed to this downturn, which has sent ripples across the UK's higher education sector, which had grown increasingly reliant on foreign students – particularly Nigerians – for revenue.

The tightening of UK visa rules is expected to have far-reaching implications for international students, particularly those from high-risk countries. As the UK government seeks to curb asylum claims and overstaying, it remains to be seen how this development will impact the country's higher education sector and its relationships with countries like Nigeria, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.