Nigeria, Africa's leading oil producer, is poised for growth driven by ongoing reforms and a strong emphasis on rehabilitating its state-owned refineries. Recent developments suggest that the nation's refineries will consume a substantial share of its crude oil production during the first half of 2025.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has announced its crude oil production forecast for the first half of 2025, aligning with Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021. This initiative aims to maximize the operational capacity of the nation's domestic refineries by ensuring a consistent and reliable supply of crude oil for processing.

According to the NUPRC, government-owned refineries, the Dangote Petroleum refinery, and eight other domestic refineries are projected to process 770,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (bbd) from January to June 2025. The Nigerian government has outlined ambitious targets, aiming for an output of over two million barrels per day and 62 million barrels per month.

The Dangote Refinery will receive the largest share of crude oil at 550,000 barrels per day, followed by the Warri Refinery with 75,000 barrels per day. The Port Harcourt Refinery and Kaduna Refinery will receive 60,000 and 66,000 barrels per day, respectively. Collectively, the nine refineries will process 770,500 barrels of crude oil daily, amounting to 23.8 million barrels per month.

Over a six-month period, this totals approximately 143 million barrels of crude oil for refining. According to the NUPRC, the projected crude oil requirement of 770,500 barrels per day (bpd) for refineries represents approximately 37% of the forecasted average daily production of 2,066,940 bpd for the first half of 2025.

The NUPRC emphasized its commitment to leveraging the capacity of upstream operators to achieve a short-term production target of 2.5 million bpd. This objective is supported by the Project One Million Barrels initiative, launched in October 2024, which has significantly enhanced Nigeria's crude production capacity to meet both domestic demand and export requirements.

Nigeria's oil production saw an 11% rise from October to November 2024, with a daily increase of 152,000 barrels and a total monthly increase of approximately one million barrels during that period. This growth is a promising sign for the country's oil industry, which is expected to continue driving economic development and growth in the region.

The rehabilitation of Nigeria's refineries is a crucial step towards achieving energy self-sufficiency and reducing dependence on imported petroleum products. As the country continues to invest in its oil infrastructure, it is likely to have a positive impact on the overall economy and contribute to Nigeria's emergence as a major player in the global energy market.