IBM CEO Arvind Krishna has come out in strong support of global trade, arguing that it is essential for local economic growth and development. Speaking at SXSW on Tuesday, Krishna cited economists from the 1800s who believed that a 10% increase in global trade leads to a 1% increase in local GDP. He emphasized that embracing international trade is crucial for the US to optimize its growth.

Krishna also stressed the importance of allowing overseas talent to flow into the US, which he believes is essential for developing local talent. He advocated for policies that promote the exchange of talent, citing the benefits of bringing in the best people from around the world to learn from and collaborate with. This stance is in contrast to the Trump Administration's calls for increased restrictions on student and H-1B work visas.

In addition to his comments on global trade and talent exchange, Krishna shared his thoughts on artificial intelligence (AI). He disagreed with a recent prediction that 90% of code will be written by AI in the next three to six months, instead estimating that AI will account for around 20-30% of code writing. Krishna believes that AI will make programmers more productive, boosting their outputs rather than replacing them.

Krishna's views on AI are significant, given that IBM has a vested interest in presenting AI as non-threatening. The company sells a range of AI-powered products and services, including assistive coding tools. However, Krishna's statements also represent a reversal from his 2023 comments, in which he said IBM planned to pause hiring on back-office functions that could be replaced with AI tech.

Krishna compared the debates over AI replacing workers to early debates over calculators and Photoshop replacing mathematicians and artists. He acknowledged that there are "unresolved" challenges around intellectual property where it concerns AI training and outputs, but ultimately believes that AI is a positive and augmenting force. "It's a tool," Krishna said of AI. "If the quality that everybody produces becomes better using these tools, then even for the consumer, now you're consuming better-quality [products]."

Krishna also predicted that AI will become more energy-efficient, citing emerging techniques demonstrated by Chinese AI startup DeepSeek. He believes that AI will eventually use "less than 1% of the energy it's using today." However, Krishna is not convinced that AI will help humanity arrive at new knowledge, instead believing that quantum computing will be the key to accelerating scientific discovery.

Krishna's views on AI and its potential are in contrast to those of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who recently predicted that "superintelligent" AI is within the realm of possibility within the next couple of years and could "massively accelerate" innovation. While Krishna acknowledges the potential benefits of AI, he is more cautious in his assessment of its capabilities and limitations.

Overall, Krishna's comments highlight the importance of embracing global trade and international talent exchange, while also providing a more nuanced view of AI's potential impact on the workforce. As the tech industry continues to evolve, Krishna's perspectives offer valuable insights into the role of AI and its relationship to human productivity and innovation.