Mark Zuckerberg's efforts to build a relationship with President Donald Trump may soon pay off, or not, as the European Union prepares to impose fines on Meta for violating its Digital Markets Act (DMA). The EU has preliminarily ruled that Facebook and Instagram's "pay or consent" advertising model violates the bloc's DMA, and fines are expected to be announced any day now.

Zuckerberg has been actively courting Trump, congratulating him on his election victory, visiting him at Mar-a-Lago, and donating $1 million to his inauguration fund. He has also embedded himself among Trump's circle of wealthy tech leaders, fostering an oligarchy around the President. Additionally, Meta's policies have shifted to align with Trump's playbook, including the appointment of UFC CEO and Trump supporter Dana White to its board, as well as the ditching of third-party fact-checkers and the disbanding of the Meta diversity team.

The EU's DMA and Digital Services Act (DSA) allow for fines of up to 10% of a company's annual revenue for non-compliance with regulatory requirements. For Meta, this could mean a significant hit to its European revenue, which accounts for nearly a quarter of its overall earnings. The company is worried that the expected DMA ruling could force it to allow European users to limit personalized ads on Facebook and Instagram for free, impacting its revenue.

Zuckerberg has been vocal about his distaste for EU regulations, calling them "institutionalized censorship" across social media platforms. He has also directed Meta executives to push US trade officials to help the company fight against the anticipated EU fine. In February, Zuckerberg himself visited Washington to beg officials for help, demonstrating the extent to which he is willing to go to protect Meta's interests.

The EU is under pressure to scale back penalties against US tech companies, or risk further retaliation from the Trump administration. The administration has already threatened tariffs against EU companies, and the situation is likely to escalate if the EU imposes significant fines on Meta. It remains to be seen whether Zuckerberg's efforts to build a relationship with Trump will pay off, or if the EU will stand firm in its regulatory stance.

The implications of this situation extend beyond Meta and the EU, with broader implications for the tech industry as a whole. As the EU continues to assert its regulatory authority over US tech companies, it sets a precedent for other regions to follow suit. This could lead to a fragmented regulatory landscape, with different regions imposing their own rules and fines on tech companies. The situation is a complex one, with many moving parts, and it will be interesting to see how it unfolds in the coming weeks and months.

In the meantime, the tech industry will be watching closely to see how the EU's decision affects Meta, and what implications it may have for other companies operating in the region. One thing is certain: the relationship between tech companies, governments, and regulators is becoming increasingly complex, and it will take careful navigation to avoid the pitfalls of regulatory fines and reputational damage.