Zambia's Economy Defies Expectations, Grows Three Times Faster Than IMF Projections

Riley King

Riley King

March 27, 2025 · 3 min read
Zambia's Economy Defies Expectations, Grows Three Times Faster Than IMF Projections

Zambia's economy has outperformed expectations, growing three times faster than projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and surpassing government forecasts. According to preliminary data, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 4% in 2023, down from 5.4% last year.

The significant growth was driven by a sharp rise in fourth-quarter output, with an impressive 8.6% growth in the last three months of the year. This marks the fastest pace in more than a decade, according to acting statistician-general Sheila Mudenda.

The surge was fueled by a strong recovery in the agricultural sector, following Zambia's worst drought in over a century. The sector saw a remarkable turnaround, with output soaring by 27.6% in the fourth quarter after contracting by 17.3% in the previous three months. Meanwhile, the mining sector surged by 26.8%, up from just 3% in the prior quarter.

Zambia, Africa's second-largest copper producer, saw a significant rise in metal production last year, reinforcing its dependence on copper, which accounts for more than 70% of the country's export earnings. Total copper output, including production from small-scale miners, surpassed 820,000 tons in 2023, according to Mines and Minerals Development Minister Paul Kabuswe.

The economy's strong performance has also led to a decline in inflation for the first time in over a year, offering the country some much-needed economic relief. The drop was driven by lower prices for essential food items such as bread and cereals, following increased rainfall that helped ease the effects of the worst drought in nearly a century.

In March, food price inflation slowed to 18.9%, down from 20.6% in the previous month, marking a significant improvement in the cost of living. This decline in inflation is a welcome development for the country, which has been struggling with high prices and economic uncertainty.

The strong growth and decline in inflation are positive indicators for Zambia's economy, which has been working to recover from the effects of the drought and other challenges. As the country continues to focus on its mining industry for economic recovery, this growth could be a significant step towards a more stable and prosperous future.

The news is also a testament to the government's efforts to revitalize the economy, and President Hakainde Hichilema's administration will likely be encouraged by these results. As Zambia looks to the future, this growth could be a key factor in driving further economic development and improving the lives of its citizens.

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