The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have sparked concerns about the impact on Africa's burgeoning tech ecosystem. The Trump administration's tariffs, paused for 90 days, could dampen non-oil export volumes, create unstable exchange rates, and fuel inflation, forcing investors to adopt a "wait and see" approach and potentially hitting sectors like e-commerce, logistics, agriculture, fintech, and technology.

According to Temitope Omosuyi, a UK-based investment analyst, the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs would likely deter investment inflows into African startups, particularly in logistics and cross-border payments. Maya Famodu of Ingressive Capital, a pan-African venture capital fund, echoed this sentiment, noting that high tariffs mean inflation, which could lead to a recession and a more prudent investment strategy for US-based institutional investors, ultimately benefiting other regions over Africa.

However, Tayo Oviosu, CEO of Paga, disagrees, believing that the tariffs will not have an outsized impact on funding for the continent's tech ecosystem. He argues that while global capital flows may shift, investor appetite for African startups might rise due to the tariffs, as investors seek to deploy capital in the private market against the public markets, driven by the stock market decline.

The tariffs have already affected Nigerian exporters, who enjoy duty-free access to non-oil sectors like agriculture and manufacturing under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) legislation. Non-oil exports more than tripled to ₦309.1 billion ($196.6 million) in 2024 from ₦86.4 billion ($54.9 million) in 2023, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, the increased landing cost could shock businesses, and smaller exporters, including e-commerce startups, may struggle to absorb or offset the hit.

Despite the challenges, some industry insiders see opportunities in the tariffs. Luther Lawoyin, CEO of PricePally, a grocery startup exporting to Nigeria's diaspora, expects the growing demand for staples and the naira's weakness against the dollar to help businesses recalibrate for viability. Malobi Ogbeche, founder of KadanKadan, a platform for group cargo exports, points out that the uneven tariff spread creates a pricing advantage, with Nigeria's 14% tariff lower than Thailand's 46%, a competitor in cassava flour.

The crypto market has also been affected, with the announcement of the tariffs worsening the outlook and leading to a selloff. Smaller African exchanges, which depend on trading fees to stay afloat, were hit as the liquidation trading activity pressured their reserves, impacting revenue. However, the crypto market saw a resurgence after Trump announced a 90-day pause on the universal tariff, restoring investor confidence in risky assets.

Ayotunde Alabi, CEO of crypto startup Luno Nigeria, sees bigger risks ahead, with trade restrictions potentially choking off outside investment and making fundraising much tougher. Capital is fleeing to safer assets like U.S. Treasuries, which is bad news for African Web3 ventures. But Alabi also sees an opportunity for Africa to invest in homegrown infrastructure and reduce reliance on external enablers.

Francis Ogbuka, VP of sales at blockchain payments company Zone, believes the US-China rift could open new trade corridors for African countries, with the continent needing more efficient cross-border payment systems. This is an area where blockchain and stablecoins can prove their real-world utility and help solve FX liquidity challenges.

In the telecom sector, the indirect effects of the trade policy could still be problematic, with changes in foreign exchange earnings, inflation, and consumer spending patterns potentially impacting telecom operators' ability to manage rising operational costs and maintain affordable services.

In conclusion, the impact of Trump's tariffs on Africa's tech ecosystem is complex and multifaceted. While some experts predict a negative impact on investment inflows and exports, others see opportunities for African startups to recalibrate and thrive. As the trade tensions continue to evolve, it remains to be seen how the continent's tech sector will adapt and respond.