President Donald Trump's latest trade policy announcement has left many in the tech and economic communities baffled, with the introduction of a 10% baseline tariff on all imports into the US, along with unusually high rates on specific countries. The numbers behind these tariffs have been called into question, with some pointing to an oversimplified calculation that bears a striking resemblance to recommendations made by popular AI chatbots, including ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, and Claude.

The controversy began when Trump unveiled his "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy, complete with a novelty-sized cardboard sign. The immediate reaction was one of confusion, with many questioning the methodology behind the tariffs. Economist James Surowiecki quickly reverse-engineered a possible explanation, suggesting that the White House had used a simple formula involving trade deficits and total exports to the US. The White House has since denied this claim, publishing its own formula, which has been criticized for being a "dressed-up" version of Surowiecki's method.

The real surprise, however, came when it was discovered that several major AI chatbots had recommended a similar approach to solving trade deficits. When asked for an "easy" way to put the US on an "even playing field," ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Grok all suggested a formula involving dividing a country's trade deficit by its total exports to the US, and then halving the result. This is eerily similar to the approach allegedly used by the White House, sparking concerns about the potential influence of AI on global trade policy.

While it is unclear whether Trump's team directly consulted with AI chatbots, the similarities between their recommendations and the White House's formula are undeniable. The chatbots themselves caution that their suggested approach is oversimplified and could have negative consequences, with Gemini warning that "the real-world economic implications are far more complex and could lead to substantial negative consequences."

The implications of this development are far-reaching, with the potential to impact global trade and the economy as a whole. The world will be watching closely to see if the tariffs come into effect on April 5th, and what the consequences will be for consumers and businesses alike. As the use of AI in policy-making continues to grow, it is essential to consider the potential risks and limitations of relying on these systems, and to ensure that they are used responsibly and transparently.

In the meantime, the tech community is left to wonder how AI chatbots arrived at this particular formula, and what this means for the future of AI-driven policy-making. As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is clear: the intersection of AI and global trade policy is an area that requires careful consideration and scrutiny.