A billion-dollar expansion of Africa's most important US-backed critical minerals project is now caught in limbo, due to a sweeping foreign-aid freeze under the Trump administration. The Lobito Corridor railway project, a crucial infrastructure initiative designed to transport minerals from the Central African Copperbelt to the Angolan coast for shipment to Western markets, lies at the heart of the crisis.

The project is one of many mining and energy initiatives across Africa that were promised financial backing from the US International Development Finance Corp., with additional support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID). However, government officials and developers fear these plans could collapse. Funding for feasibility studies, technical services, and crucial early-stage payments has been frozen, leaving the fate of the Lobito corridor hanging in the balance.

The Lobito Corridor railway project is critical to the region's economy, as it aims to transport cobalt and copper from the Central African Copperbelt, home to some of the world's richest deposits. The project's success would not only benefit the local economy but also provide a stable source of critical minerals for Western markets.

One of the biggest concerns is the rehabilitation of a railway in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a critical infrastructure connected to the Lobito corridor. In December, the US and European Union signed an agreement with Congo to study the project, which, according to four people, is estimated to cost as much as $1 billion. USAID had allocated $250,000 to explore financial models for the railway renovation, including the potential for public-private partnerships involving Western companies and DFC financing. Additionally, a request for $5 million had been submitted to fund an updated pre-feasibility study, according to sources familiar with the matter.

While the US, European Union, and the European Investment Bank remain engaged with the project, the US funding is now indefinitely frozen, creating uncertainty around its future. This uncertainty has raised concerns that if the U.S. pulls back from supporting Africa's ambitions, particularly in value addition, African nations may turn to the more substantial and consistent financial backing of China or emerging players like Saudi Arabia instead.

Analysts warn that this could have significant implications for the global supply chain of critical minerals, as China has been aggressively expanding its influence in Africa through strategic investments in infrastructure and natural resources. The Lobito Corridor railway project's fate serves as a bellwether for the Trump administration's commitment to supporting African nations' economic development and its willingness to cede influence to emerging powers.

In conclusion, the fate of the Lobito Corridor railway project hangs in the balance, as the Trump administration's foreign-aid freeze threatens to derail a critical infrastructure initiative that could have far-reaching implications for the global supply chain of critical minerals. As the situation unfolds, it remains to be seen whether the US will recommit to supporting African nations' economic development or cede influence to emerging powers.