The software industry has long known that rewriting a system from scratch is a recipe for disaster, especially when it comes to large and complex systems. Yet, Elon Musk's DOGE team has announced plans to rewrite the COBOL-based system that runs Social Security in just a few months. This move has raised eyebrows among experts, who warn that rewriting a working system can lead to unforeseen consequences and potentially disastrous outcomes.

The issue lies in the incentives behind government software development projects. Typically, these projects are awarded on a "cost plus" basis, where the winning bidder is the one that submits the lowest bid. This creates a strong incentive to cut corners and do the minimum work required to meet the specification, often resulting in subpar results. When the project inevitably fails to meet expectations, the government is left to pick up the pieces and award additional contracts to "fix" the problems, often to the same company that built the original system.

This cycle of ineptness rewarded is particularly problematic in the case of Social Security, which is one of the most complex and important systems in the country. The current system, despite its flaws, has been developed over decades and contains embedded knowledge and requirements that are difficult to replicate. Rewriting the system from scratch would require a deep understanding of these requirements, which is unlikely to be achieved in a few months.

Furthermore, the DOGE team's lack of experience with government software development and their apparent lack of understanding of the system's requirements raise serious concerns. As the author of the original article notes, "The DOGE team members don’t have even the slightest idea what the requirements are for the US Social Security software system. They don’t have the slightest idea what they don’t know." This lack of knowledge and understanding is a recipe for disaster, and could result in a system that is unable to meet the needs of its users.

The industry has known for decades that rewriting a system from scratch is never the right solution. Instead, it's often better to incrementally improve and refactor existing systems, rather than trying to start from scratch. This approach allows developers to build on existing knowledge and requirements, rather than trying to recreate them from scratch.

In conclusion, the plan to rewrite Social Security's COBOL system in a few months is a risky and potentially disastrous move. The incentives behind government software development projects, combined with the lack of understanding and experience of the DOGE team, make it unlikely that the project will succeed. Instead, it's likely to result in a system that is unable to meet the needs of its users, and could potentially cause harm to those who rely on it.