OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Lowers Expectations for Artificial General Intelligence

Riley King

Riley King

December 04, 2024 · 3 min read
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Lowers Expectations for Artificial General Intelligence

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has toned down expectations surrounding the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), stating that it may arrive sooner than anticipated but have a less profound impact on society. Speaking at The New York Times DealBook Summit, Altman expressed his belief that AGI will "matter much less" than previously thought, and that the safety concerns associated with its development may not be as pressing as initially feared.

This marks a significant shift in tone from OpenAI's initial mission to "elevate humanity" and "give everyone incredible new capabilities" through the development of AGI. The company's charter had previously stated that AGI would be capable of "automating the great majority of intellectual labor." However, Altman's recent comments suggest that OpenAI's definition of AGI has been scaled back, with the CEO now distinguishing between AGI and "superintelligence."

Altman's remarks come as OpenAI prepares to potentially declare the arrival of AGI as soon as 2025, using its large language models to achieve this milestone. The company's business deal with Microsoft includes an escape clause that would allow OpenAI to exit its profit-sharing arrangement once AGI is declared, rather than waiting for the development of superintelligence. This has led some to speculate that OpenAI is motivated by a desire to free itself from its contractual obligations with Microsoft.

Despite the potential for AGI to arrive sooner than expected, Altman believes that the economic disruption it will cause will be gradual, with significant changes only occurring over a longer period. "I expect the economic disruption to take a little longer than people think because there's a lot of inertia in society," he said. "So, in the first couple of years, maybe not that much changes. And then maybe a lot changes."

The implications of Altman's comments are far-reaching, and may influence the way researchers and developers approach the development of AGI. By downplaying the significance of AGI, OpenAI may be attempting to manage expectations and avoid the scrutiny that comes with being at the forefront of a potentially revolutionary technology. However, others may view Altman's comments as a sign of OpenAI's shifting priorities, and a potential indication that the company is more focused on its own business interests than on driving meaningful progress in the field of AI.

As the development of AGI continues to accelerate, it remains to be seen how Altman's comments will influence the broader conversation around AI and its potential impact on society. One thing is clear, however: OpenAI's CEO has set a new tone for the discussion, and it will be interesting to see how the industry responds.

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