Nigeria's petrol market is bracing for a significant influx of imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, following the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited's (NNPC) decision to halt the Naira-for-Crude initiative. This move is expected to give oil importers an edge over the Dangote Refinery, potentially affecting local production and fuel prices in the country.

The Naira-for-Crude initiative, which allowed local oil producers to buy crude in the country's local currency, has been suspended, paving the way for an increase in imported petrol. According to a document from the Nigerian Port Authority, seven vessels carrying imported petrol are scheduled to dock at Nigeria's seaports, bringing in 115,000 metric tonnes, or 154.22 million liters, of PMS. This influx of imported petrol is expected to utilize three of Nigeria's seaports.

The halt of the Naira-for-Crude initiative is seen as a blow to the Dangote Refinery, which has been producing petrol locally. The refinery has been forced to source crude from foreign markets, including the United States and Equatorial Guinea, to cut down costs. This move has been seen as a ploy to thwart the Dangote Refinery and reinstate the complete importation of refined petroleum products.

Eche Idoko, the National Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria, has expressed concerns that the deal's suspension undermines the efforts of all parties involved to attain national energy security. He believes that some individuals are upset by the Dangote Refinery's ongoing price reductions of fuel and are exploiting monopoly negotiations to reinstate importation as a substitute.

Despite the challenges, the Dangote Refinery has made significant strides in reducing fuel prices in Nigeria. As recently as October 2025, a report by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Company (OPEC) showed that Nigeria imported a higher volume of petrol in October compared to September, despite the country's oil refining capacity. However, by January 2025, reports indicated that Nigeria's petrol imports reached their lowest level in eight years, thanks to the operations of the Dangote Refinery.

In an interview with Forbes, Aliko Dangote, the head of the Refinery, spoke about the challenges faced by the refinery, describing the oil mafia as "more deadly than the one in drugs." He believes that the oil mafia is masters of "moving things around" and that despite the perception of victory, they are still a powerful force in the industry.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited's decision to discontinue its Naira-for-oil program has been attributed to the fact that the company had forward-sold all its crude, even though production levels were greater now than when the arrangement started almost six months ago. This move has raised concerns about the impact on local production and fuel prices in Nigeria.

The developments in Nigeria's petrol market are being closely watched, as they could have significant implications for the country's energy security and fuel prices. As the situation unfolds, it remains to be seen how the Dangote Refinery will respond to the challenges posed by the influx of imported petrol and the halt of the Naira-for-Crude initiative.