Nigeria's oil output has taken a hit in March, with the country producing an average of 1.40 million barrels per day, down from 1.465 million barrels per day in the previous month. This decline is attributed to the current global crude price drop, which has fallen to its lowest levels since 2021.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country's crude production has been affected by the global market trends. Despite being the largest oil producer in Africa for the last two months, Nigeria's oil output has not been immune to the volatility in the global crude market.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reports that Nigeria produced an average of 1.495 million barrels per day in January, making it the highest oil producer in Africa, with Libya coming in second at 1,277 million barrels per day. However, this figure dropped in February, with the country producing 1,560 million barrels per day.

The global crude prices have been on a downward trend, with April seeing the lowest levels since 2021. This is attributed to the import tariffs imposed by the US, as well as a sudden increase in crude supply by OPEC+, which knocked $10 a barrel off global benchmarks.

Despite the drop in global crude prices, ex-depot petrol prices in Nigeria saw an increase of N40, going from N860 to N900 per liter in Lagos. This has raised concerns about the country's oil market logic, with many questioning why fuel prices are increasing despite the drop in global crude cost.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has expressed confidence that Nigeria will surpass 3 million barrels per day this year. The minister has emphasized that Nigeria will increase output by adopting the "Drill, baby drill" model, popularized by US President Donald Trump.

The NUPRC has disclosed that the lowest and peak production in March were 1.49 million barrels of oil per day and 1.76 million barrels of oil per day, respectively. The daily average production in March was 1,603,776 barrels per day, comprising both crude oil (1,400,783 barrels of oil per day) and condensate (202,993 barrels of oil per day).

The drop in Nigeria's oil output is likely to have significant implications for the country's economy, which is heavily reliant on oil exports. The government will need to take measures to address the decline in oil production and find ways to increase output to meet its targets.

In the broader context, the global crude price drop is likely to have far-reaching implications for the energy sector as a whole. With prices at their lowest levels since 2021, many oil-producing countries will need to reassess their production strategies and find ways to stay competitive in a rapidly changing market.