Nigeria's inflation rate forecasting has been thrown into uncertainty as analysts await the release of the rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The NBS had planned to release the rebased inflation report for December 2024 at the end of January 2025, but failed to do so, leaving analysts in the dark about the country's inflation trajectory.

The rebasing of the CPI, which sets 2024 as the new base year, adds new items to the composition of the inflation basket to reflect the consumption pattern of citizens. This change could result in lower inflation rates, as the weighting of food, which accounts for the majority of household spending and contributes more than half of the CPI basket, has been cut to 40.1% from 51.8%. However, without a clear base from the revised index, analysts say making accurate predictions is impossible.

Before the rebasing, analysts expected inflation to remain elevated through mid-2025 before easing, potentially closing the year at 28%. This forecast was based on anticipated exchange rate stability, base effects, and a waning impact from fuel subsidy removal. However, the rebased index could upend these projections, making it difficult for policymakers to make informed decisions.

The uncertainty surrounding Nigeria's inflation rate has significant implications for monetary policy decisions. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to adopt a hold stance, regardless of inflation's movement, until there is clarity on the full impact of the rebased index. This could mean that interest rates, which have been raised six consecutive times in 2024, may remain unchanged in the short term.

In related news, commercial banks in Kenya are racing to lower their lending rates following the Central Bank of Kenya's threat of imposing daily fines for non-compliance. The banks had resisted the central bank's repeated efforts to ease borrowing costs, but are now hastily adjusting their rates to avoid penalties. This move could make loans more affordable for borrowers, but the high rate of non-performing loans could still pose a challenge for banks.

Airtel Money is also making a play to win the Kenyan fintech and telecoms market by refunding 100% of bank transfer fees as airtime. This strategy has been used before, and it will be interesting to see how Safaricom's M-Pesa responds to this move. The battle for Kenya's mobile money market is heating up, and customers stand to benefit from the competition.

In other news, the World Wide Web 3 is gaining traction, with Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, and Solana experiencing fluctuations in their values. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors are advised to exercise caution when making investment decisions.

Several events are lined up in the coming weeks, including the ATCG Abuja 2025 Convening, the Africa Tech Summit in Nairobi, Kenya, The Omniverse Africa Summit, and GITEX AFRICA 3rd edition. These events will provide opportunities for industry leaders, entrepreneurs, and innovators to connect, share ideas, and drive growth across the continent.