Mafab Communications, the Nigerian telecom operator that secured a $273 million 5G license in 2021, has missed its self-imposed deadline to launch services, raising fresh questions about the company's capacity to compete in Nigeria's 5G market. Despite promising to go live by the end of Q1 2025 in Kano and Abuja, Mafab has not deployed any of the 102 sites it said would support the launch.

This latest delay follows a pattern of missed deadlines and public launch announcements without actual deployment, dating back to January 2023, when Mafab hosted launch events in Lagos and Abuja with no service delivery to follow. Originally expected to launch by August 2022, Mafab was granted a five-month extension by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) after failing to obtain a Unified Access Service License (UASL)—a basic requirement for telecom operations. Two years later, the company still hasn't rolled out 5G services.

The NCC is growing increasingly impatient. According to one NCC source who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to speak to the media, Aminu Maida, NCC executive vice chairman (EVC), summoned Mafab officials in December 2024 and gave them an ultimatum: deploy soon or risk sanctions. It was after this meeting that Mafab promised to launch in Q1 2025, but the deadline has now passed without a single operational site.

Mafab declined to comment on the missed deadline or its readiness to launch. Industry experts, however, point to the company's lack of funding as a major hurdle. "They have not been able to raise the funds required for the deployment," said Rotimi Akapo, partner and head of Telecommunication, Media and Technology (TMT) at Advocaat Law Practice. "Most of the equipment will have to be imported, and it's very capital-intensive."

To get off the ground, Mafab must either lease infrastructure from tower providers like IHS Towers or American Tower Corporation, or build and manage its sites, depending on its deployment strategy. Both paths require long-term lease agreements, installation of 5G base stations, and a core network platform with a functioning billing and business support system. Even the most basic launch would be expensive, with industry estimates suggesting that deploying 102 base stations could cost Mafab as much as $122 million in Nigeria, where the average cost per 5G site can reach $1.2 million.

Mafab had hoped to skirt direct competition with incumbents by launching in underserved markets like Kano and Abuja. But that window is closing fast. MTN and Airtel began offering 5G in Kano in 2023, according to Abdulrasheed Hussain, Digital Media Manager at Premier Radio Kano. "Mafab is supposed to be launched here, but it hasn't," he said. "So far, we have MTN and Airtel 5G routers in Kano."

Mafab may pivot toward fixed wireless broadband—a cheaper alternative to mobile 5G that delivers high-speed internet to homes and businesses. MTN and Airtel already use this model to expand reach. Still, fixed broadband requires significant investment in fiber or wireless backhaul infrastructure to deliver reliable speeds.

The challenges facing Mafab are twofold, according to an investment expert who asked not to be named. "First, investors are hesitant to back an unproven company with no track record. Second, Nigeria's forex crisis makes it difficult for foreign investors to bring in capital. Domestic investors alone may not be able to fund this scale of investment."

The window for Mafab to prove itself is rapidly closing as failure to launch might eventually lead to NCC withdrawing the license. Without sufficient funding and infrastructure, the company risks being left behind in Nigeria's 5G race, further solidifying MTN and Airtel's duopoly. Whether Mafab can overcome these challenges and finally deliver on its promise remains an open question—but for now, skepticism is at an all-time high.