Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, has a reputation for making bold promises about the future of electric vehicles and autonomous technology. In 2024, Musk made several ambitious claims, including the unveiling of a $25,000 EV, the production of robotaxis, and the launch of an autonomous ride-hailing service. However, a closer examination of Musk's promises reveals a history of missed deadlines and unfulfilled expectations.

In 2024, Musk pledged to unveil a $25,000 EV, but later scrapped the project to prioritize a robotaxi prototype. This decision led to mass layoffs at Tesla as the company pursued its "next phase of growth." Despite this, Musk has flip-flopped on whether the affordable EV would ever come to market. During Tesla's third-quarter earnings call, Musk said the idea of building a $25,000 car with a steering wheel and pedals is "pointless" and "silly." Instead, he suggested that the only car he'd sell at that price point would be the Cybercab.

Musk has also made promises about Tesla's autonomous technology, including the claim that all of the company's cars moving forward would be autonomous. However, Tesla still does not produce vehicles that are safe to use without a human behind the wheel. Musk has used a loose definition of autonomy, and Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software is still not fully autonomous. In fact, Tesla has had to upgrade cars with older hardware to make them capable of autonomy.

During the earnings call, Musk said he expects vehicle growth to reach 20% to 30% in 2025 due to "lower cost vehicles" and the "advent of autonomy." He also promised that Tesla would start production on the Cybercab by 2025 or 2026, with the goal of reaching "volume production in '26" and eventually producing at least 2 million units a year. However, current federal regulations that require vehicles to be built with certain safety standards, like manual human controls, could be roadblocks for Tesla to mass produce its Cybercabs.

In addition to the Cybercab, Tesla also unveiled a Robovan prototype, with Musk posting on X that the Robovan is in development, along with "some other things." Musk has also promised that Model 3 and Model Y owners would be able to use an "unsupervised" version of FSD in California and Texas in 2025. However, it's unclear what Musk meant by "unsupervised" FSD, and Tesla's FSD is still not fully autonomous.

Musk has also claimed that Tesla has begun testing an autonomous ride-hailing service in the Bay Area with employees, but it's unclear if Tesla plans to launch this service with its robotaxis or with existing Tesla Model 3 and Model Y owners. Tesla's first-quarter earnings presentation included a mock-up of a future Tesla ride-hail app, and the company has for years teased the idea of a ride-hailing network using Teslas that had been updated to drive fully autonomously.

Finally, Musk has made promises about Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot. During Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, Musk promised that Tesla would move into "limited production" of the Optimus next year, with "over 1,000, or a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla" in 2025. He also said he expects Optimus to be on sale by 2026. However, it's unclear if the bots would be working fully autonomously, or if they would be remotely controlled by humans, as they were during Tesla's robotaxi reveal event in October.

While Musk's promises may be ambitious, they are often accompanied by a history of missed deadlines and unfulfilled expectations. As Tesla continues to push the boundaries of electric vehicles and autonomous technology, it remains to be seen whether Musk's promises will become a reality.