The world's two largest polluters, China and the US, are expected to experience a substantial surge in electricity demand over the next few years, according to the latest forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The agency predicts that global electricity demand will rise significantly, with much of the growth coming from new data centers and the manufacturing of electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, and semiconductors in these two countries.

This growth reflects broader changes in how people consume information and power their lives. More vehicles and home appliances are running on electricity, and new AI tools have led to a boom in energy-hungry data centers. As a result, it is becoming increasingly urgent to deploy new sources of energy that can ensure homes and businesses have enough electricity without creating more pollution in the process.

Keisuke Sadamori, IEA director of energy markets and security, noted that the acceleration of global electricity demand highlights the significant changes taking place in energy systems around the world and the approach of a new Age of Electricity. However, this growth also presents evolving challenges for governments in ensuring secure, affordable, and sustainable electricity supply.

Globally, the growth in demand is expected to be equivalent to adding more than Japan's entire annual electricity consumption each year between now and 2027. Most of this growth comes from countries whose economies are considered to be developing or emerging, including China. However, so-called "advanced" economies, including the US, are also beginning to consume more electricity than they have in the past.

In China, electricity consumption has grown faster than its economy since 2020, driven primarily by the manufacturing of solar panels, electric vehicles, and batteries. Chinese automaker BYD rivals Tesla in selling the most electric cars in the world, and solar supply chains are still concentrated in China despite trade sanctions. Additionally, China recently announced new policies to boost battery production.

Artificial intelligence is also playing a significant role in the story. China-based startup DeepSeek recently announced major advances in its AI models, including significant gains in energy efficiency. However, the IEA predicts that electricity use by data centers in China could double by 2027, and the growth of 5G networks in China is also increasing electricity demand.

In the US, electricity demand has either flatlined or fallen over the years, but the IEA expects demand to rise as a growing number of data centers, electric vehicles, electric heat pumps, and air conditioners suck up electricity from power grids. The US currently uses the most electricity and creates the most greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change. Its electricity demand dipped by 1.8 percent in 2023 but rebounded last year and is now expected to grow by around 2 percent on average each year through 2027.

Data centers are driving this trend, with companies making plans to build out new gas infrastructure and develop new nuclear reactors to satiate growing demand from data centers. Generative AI has also increased demand for semiconductors, and chip manufacturing is forecast to burn through increasing amounts of electricity in the US.

Electrification – getting more buildings and modes of transportation to run on electricity – isn't necessarily a bad thing as long as that electricity comes from cleaner sources of energy. China and the US are both heavy fossil fuel users, with fossil fuels generating around 60 percent of each country's electricity mix. However, pollution doesn't have to go up with electricity demand. With solar and onshore wind farms already being the cheapest new sources of electricity in most of the world, renewable energy is growing quickly.

The IEA predicts that renewables are on track to beat coal and generate more than a third of the electricity the world uses this year and could meet as much as 95 percent of new electricity demand through 2027. It also anticipates "record-high" electricity generation from both renewables and nuclear reactors over the same period. This leads to a hopeful prediction from the IEA – that planet-heating carbon dioxide emissions from generating electricity could plateau globally sometime in the next few years.

In conclusion, the surge in electricity demand in China and the US poses significant challenges for sustainable energy supply and greenhouse gas emissions. However, with the growth of renewable energy and increasing efforts to deploy cleaner sources of energy, there is hope that pollution doesn't have to increase with electricity demand.