The Nigerian oil market has taken a significant turn, putting Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote, at risk of incurring a substantial loss. The Dangote Refinery, one of the country's major oil refineries, is projected to lose up to N32.5 billion due to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited's decision to halt its Naira-for-crude initiative.

The NNPC's initiative, which allowed local refineries to purchase crude oil in the country's currency, was suspended recently. This move has forced refineries, including the Dangote Refinery, to source local crude in USD, significantly impacting their operations and revenue.

The halt in the Naira-for-crude initiative is attributed to the NNPC's decision to "forward-sell" all its crude production, reportedly to secure immediate funding, repay debts, or fulfill contractual obligations. This means that the NNPC has already sold its future crude production, leaving local refineries without a domestic source of crude oil.

According to estimates by the Punch newspaper, the potential loss for the Dangote Refinery is substantial, amounting to N32.5 billion from its 500 million liters of premium petrol stock. This calculation is based on the refinery's previous sales rate of N890 per liter, which would have generated N445 billion in revenue.

However, with the new sourcing arrangement, the refinery is expected to sell the 500 million liters of petrol at N825 per liter, resulting in a revenue of N412.5 billion. This represents a loss of N32.5 billion below the original value of N445 billion.

Despite talks of negotiations between the NNPC and Dangote for a new naira-for-crude deal, the refinery has already begun sourcing crude from foreign markets, including Angola and Algeria, through a deal with Glencore Plc. This move is seen as a strategic response to mitigate the potential losses incurred by the NNPC's decision.

Industry experts had initially projected that the refinery would be able to recover its losses due to the recent collapse in crude prices and the increase in the value of the naira relative to the dollar. However, the NNPC's decision has thrown a spanner in the works, leaving the Dangote Refinery to navigate the challenges of sourcing crude in USD.

The implications of this development are far-reaching, with potential consequences for the Nigerian oil market and the country's economy as a whole. As the situation unfolds, it remains to be seen how the Dangote Refinery will adapt to the new reality and what measures the NNPC will take to address the concerns of local refineries.