The risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032 has dramatically decreased, according to the European Space Agency (ESA). New observations have led to a revised probability of just 0.16%, a significant drop from the initial 3.1% chance reported earlier this week.

The asteroid, first identified on December 27th, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile, was initially thought to be on a potential collision course with our planet. However, a week of limited visibility due to a full moon hindered further observations, leaving scientists with incomplete data.

With the moon no longer obstructing views, ground-based telescopes have resumed tracking 2024 YR4, providing more accurate trajectory estimates. The James Webb Space Telescope's infrared capabilities will also be utilized in March and May to observe the asteroid's movements, enabling scientists to refine their calculations of the asteroid's size, composition, and potential threat.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in size, with an impact energy of approximately 7.7 megatons. While not powerful enough to cause a mass extinction event like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs, a direct hit could still devastate a city.

Although the odds of the asteroid hitting Earth have decreased, NASA has reported an increased chance of 2024 YR4 impacting the moon, now at 1%. The agency's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) will continue to update its Sentry page with the latest impact probability data.

This development highlights the importance of continued monitoring and research into Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), enabling scientists to better understand and prepare for potential threats to our planet. As new data emerges, the scientific community will continue to refine its understanding of asteroid 2024 YR4 and its potential impact on our planet.

In the meantime, the reduced risk of impact is a welcome relief, allowing scientists to focus on further studying this asteroid and others like it, ultimately enhancing our ability to respond to potential threats in the future.