Air travel safety is under scrutiny following a series of commercial jet crashes and layoffs at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). In the last 10 weeks, four commercial jet crashes have occurred, resulting in fatalities, and the FAA has announced layoffs of around 400 employees, including critical safety personnel. The recent incidents have sparked fears about the safety of air travel, but experts argue that the risk remains low despite vulnerabilities in the system.

The crashes, which include Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, Jeju Air Flight 7C2216, American Airlines Flight 5342, and Delta Connection Flight 4819, have raised concerns about the safety of commercial air travel. Additionally, several private airplane crashes have been reported, including an air ambulance crash in Philadelphia and a mid-air collision in Scottsdale, Arizona. According to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), there have been 13 fatal airplane crashes in the United States alone since the beginning of the year.

On the ground, the FAA has faced criticism for its decision to lay off employees, including mechanics, flight operations specialists, and aviation safety assistants. The union representing FAA workers, Professional Aviation Safety Specialists (PASS), disputes the characterization of the affected employees as "probationary" and argues that they were critical to the front-line safety people. The layoffs have sparked concerns about the impact on air traffic control and the overall safety of the aviation system.

Despite the recent crashes and layoffs, experts argue that the risk of a fatal crash remains low. According to OAG, a leading global aviation data provider, an estimated 6.2 million total flights occurred over the same time period as the recent crashes, making the chances of a fatal crash around 1 in 2 million. David Spiegelhalter, emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge, notes that clusters of accidents are to be expected and that the risk of a fatal crash is still at 60-year lows.

However, the aviation safety system remains brittle, with concerns about the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the industry. The pandemic prompted the early retirement of experienced pilots, mechanics, and flight attendants, leading to struggles to backfill these roles and resulting in flight delays and service disruptions. The loss of experienced personnel adds risk to the system, as pilots with more than 5,000 hours of flight time are 57 percent less likely to be involved in a crash.

The air traffic control system is also under stress, with 90 percent of the nation's air traffic control centers chronically understaffed and more than a third of the IT systems in those centers in "unsustainable" condition. The FAA doesn't expect to address these modernization concerns until at least 2030, owing to a lack of funding from Congress. Hassan Shahidi, president and CEO of the Flight Safety Foundation, notes that the United States has fallen behind countries like Canada and the UK, which have successfully modernized their ATC systems over the last two decades.

Private sector assistance may be necessary to modernize the air traffic control system, with Elon Musk's SpaceX already working with the FAA. A private nonprofit called Nav Canada controls Canadian airspace and is considered one of the best-run and most modern systems in the world. However, the industry has been infected by penny-pinching, with examples of airlines prioritizing cost savings over safety, such as IndiGo's alleged instruction to pilots to use an unsafe landing configuration to save fuel.

In conclusion, while the recent crashes and FAA layoffs have raised concerns about air travel safety, experts argue that the risk remains low despite vulnerabilities in the system. It is crucial for airlines, manufacturers, regulators, and legislators to work together to ensure the safety of air travel, and for the industry to prioritize safety over cost savings.