The warnings about the potential dangers of advanced AI systems, once a prominent topic of discussion, have been drowned out by a more optimistic vision promoted by the tech industry. In 2023, experts like Elon Musk and over 1,000 technologists and scientists called for a pause on AI development, citing the need to prepare for the technology's profound risks. However, in 2024, the narrative shifted, with industry leaders like Marc Andreessen publishing essays that presented a more positive outlook on AI's potential.

Andreessen's 7,000-word essay, "Why AI will save the world," argued that the technology will not destroy humanity, but rather save it. He advocated for a "move fast and break things" approach, which would allow Big Tech companies and startups to build AI as quickly as possible with minimal regulatory barriers. This approach, he claimed, would ensure that AI does not fall into the hands of a few powerful companies or governments, and would allow America to compete effectively with China.

Despite the initial warnings about AI doom, the industry's optimistic narrative has gained traction. AI investment in 2024 outpaced previous years, and safety researchers who had raised concerns about the technology's risks have been largely sidelined. The Biden administration's safety-focused AI executive order, which was signed in 2023, has fallen out of favor, with the incoming President-elect, Donald Trump, announcing plans to repeal it.

Meanwhile, Republicans in Washington have prioritized other AI-related issues, such as building out data centers to power AI, using AI in the government and military, competing with China, limiting content moderation from center-left tech companies, and protecting children from AI chatbots. According to Dean Ball, an AI-focused research fellow at George Mason University's Mercatus Center, the movement to prevent catastrophic AI risk has lost ground at the federal level.

One of the key battles in 2024 was over California's AI safety bill, SB 1047, which aimed to prevent advanced AI systems from causing mass human extinction events and cyberattacks. Despite being supported by two highly regarded AI researchers, the bill was vetoed by Governor Gavin Newsom, who expressed skepticism about the practicality of regulating AI. The bill's author, state Senator Scott Wiener, accused Silicon Valley of playing dirty to sway public opinion against the bill, spreading misinformation about its provisions.

As the debate around AI safety continues, policymakers are shifting their attention to new sets of AI safety problems. The fight ahead in 2025 is expected to be intense, with some lawmakers planning to introduce modified bills to address long-term AI risks. However, industry leaders like Martin Casado, a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz, are pushing back against regulating catastrophic AI risk, arguing that AI appears to be "tremendously safe."

Despite the industry's optimistic narrative, concerns about AI safety remain. For example, a startup invested in by Andreessen Horowitz, Character.AI, is currently being sued and investigated over child safety concerns. The case highlights the need for society to prepare for new types of risks around AI that may have sounded ridiculous just a few years ago.

In conclusion, the tech industry's optimistic vision of AI has gained traction, overshadowing concerns about catastrophic risks. However, as the debate continues, it remains to be seen whether policymakers will prioritize regulating AI safety or allow the industry to drive the narrative.