Africa's Geopolitical Landscape: Countries with Least Intense Foreign Influence Competition Revealed

Riley King

Riley King

March 21, 2025 · 3 min read
Africa's Geopolitical Landscape: Countries with Least Intense Foreign Influence Competition Revealed

The battle for influence in Africa is heating up, with global powers vying for economic, political, and military footholds. Amidst this intensifying competition, a new report by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) has identified African countries where the least intense battle for global influence occurs.

Africa's vast natural resources, strategic location, and emerging markets make it an appealing target for nations seeking dominance. The continent has long been a battleground for global powers looking to increase their economic, political, and military influence. Today, the competition for influence in Africa is more intense than ever, with traditional and emerging powers engaging in diplomacy, investment, and security partnerships to secure their stakes.

According to the IEP's Geopolitical Influence & Peace Report, trends at the regional level can provide important information on long-term developments and patterns of impact. A comparative analysis of two different regions, South Asia and West Africa, reveals divergent trends. China's ascent is apparent in both regions, but in West Africa, it has become the most powerful external state player with little rivalry.

China surpassed the United States in 2011, and since then, its influence has drastically increased. Economic interests, such as significant investments in mining, agriculture, and telecommunications, are the main drivers of China's increasing domination. The United States has around 10% influence in 74 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), whereas China has it in 65.

Russia has also entered the mix in recent years, given the rejection of Western influence in the Sahel region. Countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have decided on collaborating with Russia across numerous sectors, as they simultaneously expel French influence from their respective regions. Through arms sales, mercenary outfits like the Wagner Group, and diplomatic engagement, Moscow's influence in Africa has been rapid.

Despite the intensifying competition, there are African countries where the least intense battle for global influence occurs. According to the report, these countries include Sudan, South Sudan, Chad, Central African Republic, Gabon, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Lesotho, and Eswatini. These nations have managed to maintain a relatively low level of competition for foreign influence, providing a unique opportunity for them to shape their own destinies.

The implications of this report are far-reaching, with significant consequences for African countries and global powers alike. As global power conflicts deepen, states in Africa may face comparable economic constraints, interrupted trade partnerships, and limited access to key investments. On the flip side, competition between global powers to increase its influence in Africa can bolster better packages from said players, making Africa the big winner.

In conclusion, the IEP's report provides a nuanced understanding of the complex geopolitical landscape in Africa. As the battle for influence in Africa continues to intensify, it is crucial for African countries to navigate these complex relationships carefully, ensuring that their interests are protected and their sovereignty maintained.

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