The African Country Instability Risk Index (Aciri) has released a comprehensive report evaluating the stability of 48 African countries, revealing a mixed bag of results. While 31 countries have shown improvement in their stability, 17 nations have experienced a decline, with some falling into the categories of 'vulnerable' or 'critical' based on their instability risk levels.

The Aciri report, published by SBM Intelligence, considered various indices such as ethnic tensions, coup history, dominant ethnic groups, food security, poverty rate, debt sustainability, conflict and vulnerability, and economic diversity to assess the stability of each country. The report categorized countries into six stability levels - Red Watch, Critical, Warning, Vulnerable, Stable, and Safe - with a higher score indicating a higher level of political risk to business.

The top 10 African countries with the highest risk of instability, according to the report, are Sudan, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Chad, Niger, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Mali, and Rwanda. These countries have scored above 59 on the index, with Sudan leading the pack with a score of 79.

On the other hand, Angola, Burundi, Chad, Togo, and Madagascar have emerged as the biggest gainers in stability, with Angola's progress driven by a reduction in governance costs and Madagascar's GDP growth increasing from 4.3% in 2022 to 4.4% in 2023. However, Botswana, Seychelles, Nigeria, Namibia, and Zimbabwe have been identified as the biggest losers, with Botswana facing a nearly 2% GDP decline in Q1 2024 and Zimbabwe grappling with economic challenges, including debt and currency crises.

Nigeria, Africa's fourth-largest economy, recorded a score drop of -6 due to the exit of foreign businesses amid a weakening currency, rising inflation, and other economic difficulties. The report highlights the complex phenomenon of country instability, which can manifest in various ways, including political, economic, social, military, environmental, and external factors.

The Aciri report aims to provide stakeholders with a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities in each region, offering recommendations on mitigating risks, maximizing opportunities, and making informed decisions about investing and operating in Sub-Saharan Africa. The report's findings have significant implications for businesses, investors, and policymakers operating in the region, as they navigate the complex landscape of political risk and instability.

As the report notes, "the Aciri breaks down the challenges and opportunities for stakeholders in each region and offers recommendations on mitigating risks, maximizing opportunities, and making informed decisions about investing and operating in Sub-Saharan Africa." The report's insights are crucial in understanding the nuances of regional stability and making informed decisions in the face of uncertainty.

In conclusion, the African Country Instability Risk Index report serves as a vital tool for stakeholders seeking to navigate the complex landscape of political risk and instability in Africa. As the region continues to grapple with various challenges, the report's findings offer a timely reminder of the need for proactive risk management and informed decision-making in the face of uncertainty.