Africa is bracing for a potential surge in fuel prices in the coming days, driven by a spike in the cost of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil. The increase is attributed to new sanctions imposed by the US on Russian oil producers, which are expected to hinder oil deliveries to major customers, India and China, and drive up prices.

The sanctions, announced by the administration of US President Joe Biden, target every stage of Moscow's oil production and distribution systems, including tankers, middlemen, dealers, and ports. According to sources in the Russian oil trade and Indian refining industries, the embargo will significantly reduce Russian oil export quantities, leading to higher prices.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo predicts that the sanctions will reduce Russian oil export quantities and raise prices. The impact is already being felt, with the cost of Brent crude rising from $72.88 per barrel in December 2024 to $79.76 per barrel currently.

In Africa, the effects of the price surge are already being seen. Several fuel depots have reported increases in diesel prices, with N70 being added to the cost of diesel in some regions, taking the price from N1,050 to N1,120 per liter. According to Chief Executive Officer of petroleumprice.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, "It implies that there is a possibility of increased fuel prices, particularly diesel prices."

Jeremiah added that importers may increase prices on Monday, citing the rise in Brent crude prices. With a large chunk of oil marketers importing petroleum products, the increase in Brent crude prices is expected to have a ripple effect on fuel prices across the continent.

The price of Brent crude is influenced by a range of market variables, including global supply and demand, geopolitical events, production quotas, and economic trends. As a prominent worldwide benchmark, Brent crude is used to price two-thirds of the world's international crude oil supply.

The potential fuel price surge in Africa has significant implications for the continent's economies, which are already grappling with a range of challenges. The increase in fuel prices is likely to drive up inflation, affect economic growth, and impact the cost of living for millions of Africans.

As the situation continues to unfold, it remains to be seen how African governments and oil marketers will respond to the price surge. One thing is certain, however: the impact of the US sanctions on Russian oil producers will be felt far beyond the borders of Russia, with Africa likely to be one of the hardest hit regions.